| There are some people who are very good at | | | | minutes before kick-off, this gives a big indication of |
| predicting the outcome of sporting events. Professional | | | | how the game will go. The team sheet will tell you two |
| gamblers can do it and can make a good living from it. | | | | things: firstly whether the manager is playing his best |
| Team managers to some extent need to do this in | | | | team (e.g. are there players out through injury? Or is |
| order to plan a team's season, knowing which games | | | | he saving players for a more important match?). |
| to focus on and which ones to leave more to hope. | | | | Secondly it will tell you the likely formations. If a team |
| Some sports journalists also have the knack of getting | | | | has no recognized striker then they are probably going |
| it right more often than not. To some it may seem like | | | | to be playing a more defensive formation. However, if |
| guess work or going on gut feeling but there is a | | | | there are a number of strikers on the substitutes' |
| science to sport and if you know what factors are | | | | bench then it is likely the coach will be putting them on |
| important you too can be successful at predicting | | | | the pitch at a later stage in the game and thus is not |
| match results. | | | | settling for a draw. Also look out for players just |
| League position | | | | coming back from injury. Such a player may have a |
| The first and most obvious thing to look at when | | | | good first game but performances may then dip as |
| deciding who's most likely to win a game is the relative | | | | fitness becomes an issue. Typically it takes 5 games |
| position of the teams in the league table. If there are a | | | | for a player to get back to full match fitness. |
| number of places separating the two teams then the | | | | Who's on a roll? |
| higher team is most often going to win and if the | | | | As with many sports, confidence is a huge factor. |
| teams are close together then a draw is the probable | | | | Teams can get into cycles where bad results leads to |
| result. You can do this by rule of thumb or it is possible | | | | bad confidence which in turn leads to worse |
| to be more methodical by going back through the | | | | performances. The same is true when a team's |
| records and quantifying just how much of an | | | | confidence spirals upwards. It is for this reason that |
| advantage the league position is. Over the last five | | | | teams tend to go through good and bad patches. |
| years in the English Premier League for example, | | | | When a team is on a winning streak there is a strong |
| when the two teams are within 6 places a draw is on | | | | likelihood they will continue winning, even against better |
| average the most likely result. Different leagues will | | | | teams. Look out for runs in a team's recent matches: |
| vary depending on how competitive they are and it will | | | | e.g. how many games have they gone without a |
| also vary at different points in the season. League | | | | victory? Although they won't often admit it players are |
| position is less effective a predictor at the start of the | | | | acutely aware of these statistics and it does play on |
| season when there aren't enough results to make a | | | | their minds. Other runs to look out for are: |
| reliable prediction; and also at the end of the season | | | | - Games without scoring a goal |
| when teams (particularly the more successful ones) | | | | - Number of clean sheets (no goals against) |
| are tired! | | | | - Consecutive away wins |
| Home or away | | | | - Number of games unbeaten |
| The next most important factor to consider is whether | | | | - Number of games played |
| a team is playing at home or away. In some leagues | | | | This last point is an important one. Tiredness is an |
| away victories are relatively rare. The main reason for | | | | important factor in determining a team's chances of |
| this is the influence of the crowd. For teams that have | | | | winning. A player should normally be able to play 2 |
| a long way to travel and few supporting fans the | | | | games a week but this is hard to sustain over a |
| opposition stadium can be a hostile environment. Also | | | | number of months, especially if there is a lot of |
| (although of course it shouldn't happen) the crowd can | | | | traveling and the games are very competitive. A team |
| have an influence on the referee. Refereeing is full of | | | | that has not played for 7 days has a significant |
| marginal decisions, and the presence of a large crowd | | | | advantage over one which has played in the last 3 or |
| of jeering supporters can effect the referee's | | | | 4 days. |
| judgement. This effect of 'home bias' by referees has | | | | Derbies and rivalries |
| been scientifically tested by analyzing match videos, | | | | Some matches have a special significance for |
| and has been shown to be a genuine phenomena - | | | | supporters and players alike. Derby games, where the |
| not just a frustration in the minds of the disappointed | | | | two teams are local to each other, can throw up |
| away fans! Because of this home advantage teams | | | | unexpected results. Part of the reason for this is that |
| will often have two configurations: one for home and | | | | the away supporters don't have far to travel and so |
| one for away. Away teams will often be more | | | | can be in the stadium in equal numbers to the home |
| cautious and play a defensive mid-fielder in place of | | | | fans. This can create an unusually vibrant atmosphere |
| one of the strikers, making an away victory even less | | | | which can make players more nervous and accident |
| likely. It's easy to quantify the home advantage in a | | | | prone. The intense rivalry between such teams can |
| league by adding up all the home wins over a season | | | | produce special performances from some teams. This |
| and comparing it with the number of away wins. The | | | | all makes it hard to predict the outcome of such |
| ratio is typically around 2 to 1 in favor of the home | | | | games. There can be other team rivalries that one |
| team. | | | | should also be aware of: for instance teams that have |
| Who's playing? | | | | a history of victories over one another in important |
| A key decider is the team announcement. When the | | | | competitions; and teams that have an equal number of |
| line up of the teams is announced, usually twenty | | | | trophies. |