The Future History of Soccer - Predicting the Next Sixty Years

Like a lot of people who went to elementary school inby their experience with the Olympics in which the IOC
the 1980s, I grew up hearing wondrous tales of whatdid not allow England to send its own team, they will
the world would look like in the year 2000. Based onget their act together and kit up a British squad.
the fictions spread by my various teachers, we faced7. Africa will... wow, who knows? This is the toughest
one of two future outcomes: the Soviet Unionone. I have no doubt that Africa will continue to
(remember them?) would either trigger aproduce top-tier talent, and I expect that in 50 years
thermonuclear war, or we would all be zipping aroundmost of the top players in the world will come from
in jetpacks and flying cars, wearing oddly matchingAfrica. The real question, though, is whether Africa can
jumpsuits and eating only large pills and colored liquid.begin to develop leagues that can compete at the
Of course, neither of those things happened, andhighest levels and whether their football associations
though my car is very much attached to terra firma,will stop interfering with and destroying their national
the intervening years have brought a number ofteams. In the last decade, we have seen he football
changes to society, the likes of which nobody wouldassociations of Nigeria, Cameroon, Senegal and Cote
have likely predicted in 1984.d'Ivoire rightfully accused of theft, massive
The point, I suppose, is that the prognosticationmismanagement of players, threats of violence, political
business is at best a crapshoot, and at worst acoercion, and utter and complete incompetence on a
chance for people to write things that subsequentscale heretofore unseen in soccer history. To make
events will make a mockery of. Soccer is not immunematters worse, African nations have not dedicated
to stupid predictions, as anyone who has followedthemselves to developing their own coaches, do not
Pele's occasional commentary in the press knows alladequately prepare youth, and offer the most shoddy
to well. So, wanting to look ahead to the future ofand dilapidated facilities in which to train and play.
soccer, but not wanting to expose myself to theThat said, the continent continues to produce fantastic
ridicule of being proved wrong, I will look way, wayplayers, and the march that began with Weah and Milla
head to the year 2062, and tell you what thefrom Liberia and Cameroon, respectively, continues
footballing world will look like in 54 years. I'll be 85 bywith true gems like Drogba, Eto'o, Adebayor, Essien,
then, which means I'll either be dead, senile, or so happyand a bevy of other stars. In the end, the fortunes of
that I finally got my flying car that I won't care that IAfrican soccer will rise or fall with the continent's ability
wrote something 54 years ago that makes me soundor inability to right its economies, to produce wealth, to
foolish! If I'm lucky, I would have just seen my 19thcreate infrastructure, and to purge its governments,
World Cup. So what will 2062 Brian Fobi have seen?and thereby its football associations, of the kind of
1. England still won't have won another World Cup. Atkleptocratic, nepotistic, and capricious bureaucracy that
the close of the 2062 World Cup, England fans willhas ground down the continent's best minds and
look forward to the 2066 Cup, knowing that certainlytalents. If the continent can turn itself around, there are
fate will be on their side as they stare down the 100tha least ten nations that have the potential to become
anniversary of their last win. England is thetrue world soccer powers (Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana,
consummate quarterfinalist, and can look back at aIvory Coast, Senegal, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco,
hundred years of Ronaldinho goals, Beckham redTunisia, and Togo come to mind). If not, then we will
cards, Rooney red cards, and Brookyln Beckham redsee what we have seen in the last 25 years: stars
cards, and believe that they are jinxed, but the truth isarise, and every World Cup one or two African
that they are just not that good.nations will impress, but the rest will fall flat.
2. China will still be the next big thing. Based on8. The three best leagues in the world will be 1) The
everything you read in the news, in 40 years theBrazilian league, 2) the MLS, and 3) French Ligue 1.
Chinese will own, run, manufacture, manage, andBrazil has increasingly become more sure of itself as a
dominate everything. FIFA expects great things fromnation, and as its economy grows, it will produce the
China, and certainly between then and now China willkind of broad and deep wealth capable of supporting
host at least one World Cup, but more likely two. Theteams who develop and retain the best players in the
Chinese women will continue to do well, but unless aworld. When Santos, Flamengo and Gremio have he
great many things change, I don't see China puttingbankroll to prevent players like Kaka, Ronaldinho, or
together the kind of league and national youth systemRobinho from leaving, the Brazilian teams will improve
necessary to produce 11 world class players. Also,rapidly and exponentially. As for the MLS, soccer is
beware the China bubble. China might continue togrowing steadily and surely in the United States, and
grow at 10% for the next 50 years, or we may findwithin twenty years or so, the league will be among
out that a managed state and economy cannot bearthe best in the world. The United States has a real
the burden of its first major economic downturn. Thatadvantage because, as the world's cultural center, it will
discussion is best served in another venue on anotheralways have a cache and drawing power that other
day, but suffice to say that I am not yet sold onnations cannot match. In other words, once the MLS
China's perpetually bright future, and this goes doublybecomes a viable option, financially and competitively,
for football.with European leagues, the marketing potential and
3. CONMEBOL and CONCACAF will merge. Aluster of the United States will allow the MLS to move
merger of these two regions only makes sense. And,past its European rivals. Twenty years might seem too
as a child of he 1980s, seeing these parts merge givessoon, but the league recently celebrated its 10th
me memories of Devastator coming together to workanniversary, and anyone around for the inauspicious
at the behest of Megatron to drive the Autobots...opening days of the league can attest to the manner
sorry. Back to my point, a merger of the Northand rate of its growth. As for France, it's just a hunch,
American and South American confederations makesnothing more. The league has long under-performed,
sense, and it will improve the quality of play all around.and it seems like a nation of France's wealth and
First, it would give America and Canada moresoccer pedigree should have a better league. Also,
consistent and meaningful exposure to top competition.look out for the J-League.
Second, it would make the regional championship (Cup9. Australia will rue the day they moved to Asia. The
of the Americas? Americas' Cup? Copa dethinking was that by moving to Asia, Australia would
Americas?) a truly first rate event that upstages thehave an easier road to qualification. In the past, the
Euros and takes its place as the second greatestOceania winner would have to face a
soccer tournament in the world, after the World Cup.home-and-home playoff against a South American
Third, the sheer size of the confederation wouldteam, and until this last World Cup, Australia could be
necessitate breaking the nations into groups, whichcounted on to lose that. As Japan, South Korea, Iran,
would mean fewer games for qualifying for the SouthIraq, Saudi Arabia, and China continue to improve, it will
American teams.become the case that Australia faces an increasingly
4. The Caribbean nations will jointly host the greatestdifficult road to qualifying, and will miss some World
World Cup of all time. Building on their joint hosting ofCups that it may have made had it decided to instead
the Cricket World Cup, 10 Caribbean nations will treattake on teams like Uruguay or Venezuela.
football fans to the most fun, sun-soaked, and festive10. Someone will take FIFA down a notch. In recent
World Cup on record. Moving between World Cupyears, Sepp Blatter has become more and more
venues by cruise boat or airplane, thousands of fanssanctimonious and over-the-top in the way that he
will gather to watch soccer in the daytime, then drinkdiscusses soccer's role in the world, its ability to
and party at night. The final in Port of Spain will taketranscend national boundaries and, more troublingly, that
place to a steel drum soundtrack, and everyone, eventhe game (or, more pointedly, the administrators of the
the defeated fans, will leave happy.game: FIFA) is not subject to any national laws. There
5. The United States will win a World Cup. I'm nothave been other sporting institutions that have tried to
saying when, but in the next 56 years, it will happen. Ifadvance the same lame argument, and in the United
you are skeptical (ahem, consummate America-haterStates, at least, they have typically lost. FIFA needs to
Luis "Snacks" Bueno, I'm talking to you), you are waybe subject to national laws, and talk to the contrary is
too pessimistic. Think about it: if my prediction is true,utter rubbish, and if true would give FIFA a status that
the grandmother of the team's captain might be inno other institution in the world possesses. Sure, this
preschool right now. The USA has built a first ratewould cause administrative headaches for FIFA, but to
youth system, has excellent corporate backing, has theassert that FIFA can do whatever it wants without, for
best sports science in the world, and dadgummit, we'reexample, concern for local labor laws, is both
Americans and we don't lose. This the sportinganti-democratic and completely unjustified. In addition,
equivalent of the Apollo moon mission. Hell or highFIFA will have to learn a hard lesson as it attempts to
water we will get it done.fight the flow of history and enforce caps on foreign
6. Britain will finally get its act together and field a jointplayers employed and fielded by club teams.
team. I know, this seems unlikely, especially withGlobalization is a reality, and eventually FIFA will learn
Scotland getting greater independence and all, but let'sthese lessons.
be honest. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland allSo, by the time I am on my deathbed, soccer will look
have to struggle just to qualify for the World Cup, toquite a bit different. In most respect these changes will
say nothing of actually winning it. And, since England isbe positive. Now that I have offered my opinion on
not itself a sovereign nation, it does not make anywhat the next six decades hold, I'm curious to hear
more sense that they should be a FIFA member thanyour opinions on what you think will happen in the
it would for say, Minnesota, to join FIFA. Frustrated byworld of soccer.
continued failures, and perhaps even a bit chastened